The skyline of Shanghai, China. |
Although
China
has made substantial progress in cleaning up its air pollution, a new Massachusetts
Institute of Technology (MIT) study shows that the economic impact from ozone
and particulates in its air has increased dramatically.
In
recent decades, China
has experienced unprecedented growth. But that growth comes with a steep price
tag, according to the study, which appears in Global Environmental Change. The study, by researchers at the MIT
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, analyzes the costs
associated with health impacts from ozone and particulate matter, which can
lead to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.
Quantifying
costs from both lost labor and the increased need for health care, the study
finds that this air pollution cost the Chinese economy $112 billion in 2005.
That’s compared to $22 billion in such damages in 1975.
“The
results clearly indicate that ozone and particulate matter have substantially
impacted the Chinese economy over the past 30 years,” even though there have
been significant improvements in air quality detected over this period, says
Noelle Selin, an assistant professor of engineering systems and atmospheric
chemistry at MIT.
The
researchers discovered this large economic impact because they looked at
pollution’s long-term effect on health, not just the immediate costs. In doing
so, they found two main causes for the increase in pollution’s costs: Rapid
urbanization in conjunction with population growth increased the number of
people exposed to the pollution, and higher incomes raised the costs associated
with lost productivity.
“This
suggests that conventional, static methods that neglect the cumulative impact
of pollution-caused welfare damage or other market distortions substantially
underestimate pollution’s health costs, particularly in fast-growing economies
like China,” says Kyung-Min Nam,
one of the study’s authors and a postdoc in the Joint Program on the Science
and Policy of Global Change.
Nam gives one example
from the study showing that pollution led to a $64 billion loss in gross
domestic product in 1995. That compares to static estimates from the World Bank
that found the loss to be only $34 billion.
In
this way, Selin says, “this study represents a more accurate picture than
previous studies.”
Kelly
Sims Gallagher, an associate professor of energy and environmental policy at Tufts University’s
Fletcher School, agrees: “This important study
confirms earlier estimates of major damages to the Chinese economy from air
pollution, and in fact, finds that the damages are even greater than previously
thought.”
The
researchers calculated these long-term impacts using atmospheric modeling tools
and comprehensive global economic modeling. These models proved especially
important when it came to assessing the cumulative impact of ozone, which China has only
recently begun to monitor. Using their models, the MIT researchers were able to
simulate historical ozone levels.
China has become the
world’s largest emitter of mercury, carbon dioxide, and other pollutants. In the
1980s, China’s
particulate-matter concentrations were at least 10 to 16 times higher than the
World Health Organization’s annual guidelines. Even after significant
improvements by 2005, the concentrations were still five times higher than what
is considered safe. These high levels of pollution have led to 656,000
premature deaths in China
each year from ailments caused by indoor and outdoor air pollution, according
to World Health Organization estimates from 2007.
“The
study is evidence that more stringent air-pollution control measures may be
warranted in China,”
Gallagher says—because of not just the health effects of pollution, but also
the economic effects.
China is taking steps to
respond to these health and economic concerns. In January, the nation set a
target to limit its carbon intensity (the amount of carbon emitted per unit of
gross domestic product) by 17% by 2015, compared with 2010 levels.
While
the MIT study looked at the benefits of pollution-control measures on health in
China,
it did not calculate the costs of implementing such policies. That is work the
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change’s new China Energy and
Climate Project hopes to accomplish.
“We’re
just getting started on an exciting program of work that will involve modeling
the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of climate and air-quality
policies in China,”
says Valerie Karplus, director of the China Energy and Climate Project. “The
current study has provided initial insights and a strong foundation for this
research going forward.”
The
China Energy and Climate Project will analyze the impact of existing and
proposed energy and climate policies in China on technology, energy use,
the environment, and economic welfare.