A new international study is the first to use a high-resolution, large-scale computer model to estimate how much ice the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could lose over the next couple of centuries, and how much that could add to sea-level rise. The results paint a clearer picture of West Antarctica’s future than was previously possible. The study is published August 18, 2015, in The Cryosphere, a journal of the European Geosciences Union.
“The novel aspect of our work is the use of a high-resolution ice-sheet model over a larger area and longer time-scale than previously attempted. Much like a higher-resolution digital camera transforms a blur into a flock of birds, higher resolution in a computer model often helps to capture details of the physics involved which may be crucial to the broad picture,” says co-author Daniel Martin from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab).
West Antarctica is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, and its ice sheet has been stage to dramatic thinning in recent years. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is out of balance because it is losing significant amounts of ice to the ocean, with the losses not being offset by snowfall.
“The IPCC’s [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] 4th and 5th Assessment Reports both note that the acceleration of West Antarctic ice streams in response to ocean warming could result in a major contribution to sea-level rise, but that models were unable to satisfactorily quantify that response,” says Stephen Cornford from University of Bristol, UK and lead-author of the study.
Using an ice sheet model — called Berkeley-ISICLES (BISICLES) — Martin, Cornford and collaborating researchers from around the world have now estimated how much the WAIS could contribute to global sea-level rise over the next couple of centuries. These comprehensive high-resolution simulations are a significant improvement from previous calculations, which were lower in resolution or scale, allowing researchers to make more accurate predictions about West Antarctica’s future.
Some of the BISICLES simulations were performed on the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center’s (NERSC’s) Hopper and Edison systems, which are located at Berkeley Lab.
- For more information on the ice sheet model see: http://crd.lbl.gov/news-and-publications/news/2013/berkeley-code-captures-retreating-antarctic-ice/
- For more information on the results see: http://www.egu.eu/news/188/most-comprehensive-projections-for-west-antarcticas-future-revealed/
About Berkeley Lab Computing Sciences
The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) Computing Sciences organization provides the computing and networking resources and expertise critical to advancing the Department of Energy’s research missions: developing new energy sources, improving energy efficiency, developing new materials and increasing our understanding of ourselves, our world and our universe. ESnet, the Energy Sciences Network, provides the high-bandwidth, reliable connections that link scientists at 40 DOE research sites to each other and to experimental facilities and supercomputing centers around the country. The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) powers the discoveries of 6,000 scientists at national laboratories and universities, including those at Berkeley Lab’s Computational Research Division (CRD). CRD conducts research and development in mathematical modeling and simulation, algorithm design, data storage, management and analysis, computer system architecture and high-performance software implementation.
About Berkeley Lab
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory addresses the world’s most urgent scientific challenges by advancing sustainable energy, protecting human health, creating new materials, and revealing the origin and fate of the universe. Founded in 1931, Berkeley Lab’s scientific expertise has been recognized with 13 Nobel prizes. The University of California manages Berkeley Lab for the DOE’s Office of Science. The Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States, and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time.
