IDC Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues to Reach $318 Billion in 2012 and Nearly $378 Billion in 2015
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., July 21, 2011 – International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts worldwide semiconductor revenues
will grow 5% year over year in 2012 and will achieve a compound annual growth
rate (CAGR) of 6% for the 2010-2015 forecast period. Coming from a strong
recovery in 2010, semiconductor revenues will grow only modestly in 2011 to
$303 billion, according to the mid-year 2011 update of IDC’s Semiconductor Application Forecaster (SAF).
“Overall, IDC continues to reaffirm the forecast
and views expressed in its end-year SAF update published in December2010. But,
IDC also cautions that continued macroeconomic problems, such as persistent
high unemployment with the associated low consumer sentiment in the U.S., the
ongoing sovereign debt crisis, especially in Europe and U.S., fear of recession
in U.S. and Japan in 2012, and fear of high inflation in China, India, and
Brazil, will likely impact semiconductor market negatively in 2012. But
long-term secular growth driven by end applications such as smart phones, media
tablets, mobile PCs, set top boxes, LCD TVs, wired networks, industrial
automation, and automotive infotainment remains strong,” said Mali Venkatesan, research manager, Semiconductors at IDC, who
led the study and compiled the SAF data.
The launch of Sandy Bridge and Fusion APU in 2011,
by Intel and AMD respectively, along with continued enterprise adoption of
Windows 7, should help to accelerate the PC replacement cycle and drive
semiconductor demand for the Computing segment into 2012. At the same time,
increased encroachment of media tablets into the mobile PC market will slow semiconductor
growth in the Computing segment. Overall, this segment, which represents about
40% of all semiconductor revenues, will show year-over-year (2012) and CAGR
(2010-2015) growth rates of 4% and 5%, respectively.
Semiconductor technology continues to be at the
heart of the smartphone markets and will continue to enable system vendors to
bring key user requirements to devices positioned for the enterprise, connected
home, and under-served regional markets. However, there is continued pricing
pressure on cellular baseband and connectivity chipsets, especially in the low
end of the markets. Long-term volume growth, however, remains robust as demand
for these chipsets extends beyond smartphones. IDC also sees solid long-term
telecom spending given the continued growth of IP traffic, cloud computing,
migration to next-generation wired networks, and growth of smart devices on the
networks. IDC forecasts year-over-year (2012) and CAGR (2010-2015) growth rates
of 7% and 7%, respectively, for the Communications industry segment.
Although there is high growth in semiconductor
revenues from media tablets, e-readers, and LED/LCD TV sets, continued declines
in traditional consumer devices, such as DVD players and fixed game consoles, will
result in tepid semiconductor revenue growth of 5% year over year (2012) and CAGR (2010-2015) for the Consumer segment.
The Automotive segment and Industrial segment,
which includes energy, medical, industrial automation, military and aero,
together represent about 16% of semi revenues. These segments are forecast to
log 5% and 8% growth rates respectively for year-over-year (2011) and CAGR
(2010-2015), with growth driven by increased automobile sales worldwide and
increased semiconductor consumption in applications such as infotainment,
safety and diagnostic systems, engine control, energy/battery management, M2M,
smart grid, LED lighting, and factory automation.
Among semiconductor devices, ASSP revenues for
media/audio/graphics will show a CAGR (2010-2015) of 11%; but, DRAM revenues
will decline due to continued pricing pressure with a CAGR (2010-2015) of 1%. Regionally,
as expected, Asia/Pacific continues to grow its share of semiconductor
revenues, reaching 43% in 2015.
IDC’s Worldwide Semiconductor Applications Forecaster database serves as the basis for all IDC
semiconductor supply-side documents, including market forecasts and consulting
projects. This database contains revenue data collected from the top 100
semiconductor companies for 2006-2010 and market history and forecasts for
2006-2015. Revenue for over twelve semiconductor device areas, four geographic
regions, six end-application vertical markets, and over 90 end-device
applications are also included in the database.
For more information, contact:
Mali Venkatesan
[email protected]
650-350-6405
Michael Shirer
[email protected]
508-935-4200
