Organic
light emitting diode (OLED) lighting has the potential to create cheap,
pleasing light in unique, flexible form factors. However, the technology is
immature and costly. Lux Research reports that OLED lighting costs will drop by
more than an order of magnitude over the course of this decade. But the
technology will still remain uncompetitive with other lighting options, and
amount to a mere $58 million market in 2020.

The
report, titled “Finding the End
of the Tunnel for OLED Lighting,” analyzes prospects for OLED lighting
fixtures which emit diffuse, glareless illumination from either glass or
flexible panels. It projects that OLED lighting costs will drop from $18/lumen
today to $0.71/lumen on glass and $0.18/lumen on flexible substrates by 2020.
Despite this marked improvement, OLED lighting costs are estimated to still lag
behind competitive illumination sources, limiting broad adoption.

“Developers
are still looking for the ‘killer application’ for OLED lighting that will
allow them to make initial sales and bootstrap their way to larger scale,” says
Jonathan Melnick, a Lux Research Analyst and the report’s lead author. “The
problem is that OLED lighting is so much more expensive than incumbent and
emerging alternatives—it’s only the most cost-insensitive markets that would
use it for aesthetic value for the foreseeable future.”

To
forecast the OLED lighting market, Lux Research built detailed models by market
segment to look at potential applications for OLED lighting in target markets,
such as designer lighting, luminaires, general illumination, wearable lighting,
automotive, and aerospace. Among the report’s key findings:

• Designer lighting takes advantage of the form factors of OLED
  lighting. While
  OLEDs won’t challenge incandescent, fluorescent, or LEDs on a cost basis, they
  will find opportunities in designer lighting where aesthetic imperatives can
  trump price. OLEDs particularly suit applications that can absorb high-priced
  fixtures, such as high-end hotels, casinos, and upscale bars and restaurants.
  Once commercial flexible panels emerge in 2015, adoption will see a bump for
  this market. All told, the designer lighting market for OLEDs will reach $32
  million in 2020.
• OLEDs’ high costs will limit growth in luminaires. OLED panel manufacturers are
  targeting this market through strategic partnerships with luminaire designers,
  and Lux Research projects it to be the second largest, after designer lighting,
  with a 2020 market size of $22 million. The cost of OLED lamps, which can reach
  to thousands of dollars each, will be prohibitive for many prospective
  customers. 
• By technology, flexible OLED lighting will predominate in the second
  half of the decade. Once
  flexible OLED lighting panels become commercially available in 2015, they will
  immediately begin taking market share from glass panels. Further, their
  projected lower costs and the unique applications that flexibility enables will
  propel them to become the leading OLED technology entering the next decade. In
  2020, of the $58 million OLED lighting market, we project 63% will be flexible
  substrates.

Lux Research, www.luxresearchinc.com