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The long-delayed September jobs report landed today with a headline that White House officials were eager to amplify. The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double analysts’ expectations of roughly 50,000. Yet unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, and earlier months were revised down, with August now showing a loss of 4,000 jobs rather than a gain. The report itself was held up for more than six weeks by what is now the longest government shutdown in United States history, a 43-day lapse that halted key federal functions. In October, Challenger, Gray & Christmas had noted that layoffs had hit the highest rate in decades, partly laying the blame on AI.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has also acknowledged that its earlier estimates overstated job growth. Annual benchmarking to more complete payroll data showed that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in the year through March 2025 than initially reported.
Against that backdrop, Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer framed today’s release as a vindication of the administration’s economic record. In her statement, she said the numbers reflect “an economy that is firing on all cylinders,” adding that “job and yearly wage growth blew past expectations, more Americans are entering the workforce, and long-term unemployment is down.”
What the data shows
Several of the Secretary’s specific claims diverge from what the BLS report actually contains: Chavez-DeRemer’s statement says “long-term unemployment is down.” The BLS report states that “the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.8 million in September.”
The statement claims “more Americans are entering the workforce.” The BLS data shows the employment-population ratio at 59.7% in September, “down by 0.4 percentage point over the year.” The labor force participation rate “changed little over the month and over the year” at 62.4%.
The statement says “yearly wage growth blew past expectations.” The BLS reports average hourly earnings increased 3.8% over the past 12 months. Many economists had forecast wage growth of 3.9% to 4.0%, meaning actual wage growth came in slightly below, not above, expectations.
Chavez-DeRemer’s statement blames Democrats for choosing to “play political games and shut down the government,” and says “we should’ve had this positive report seven weeks ago.” The BLS report notes that “publication of September data was delayed by more than 6 weeks because of a lapse in federal appropriations” that began October 1, when Congress failed to pass a spending bill.
The statement emphasizes “impressive gains in private sector payrolls.” The BLS breakdown shows those gains were concentrated in health care (+43,000), food services and drinking places (+37,000), and social assistance (+14,000). Manufacturing, professional and business services, and information—sectors that include substantial R&D employment—all showed “little or no change over the month.”
In the wake of DOGE, federal jobs are still shrinking
While private employers added jobs in September, federal government employment fell by roughly 3,000 positions and is down close to 100,000 from its peak in January, according to BLS payroll data. In February, President Trump had established the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), and a “Workforce Optimization Initiative” that led to thousands of cuts at science and regulatory roles.
The BLS notes a caveat: “Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.” This means the 97,000 decline likely understates the actual number of federal workers who have lost their positions.
Many of those losses are concentrated in agencies that anchor the U.S. research ecosystem. Since early 2025, the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation have moved from funding new science to managing mass layoffs, grant freezes and outright cancellations
In total, more than 3,800 NIH and NSF awards have been terminated or suspended in 2025, with watchdog projects such as Grant Witness and Grant Watch tracking cancellations that span nearly every scientific discipline.
These termination waves come on top of deep proposed cuts. For 2026, the administration requested reducing the NSF’s budget to about $3.9 billion, more than a 50% cut from recent levels of $8.8 billion.
At NIH, internal documents and budget proposals point to reductions on the order of 40% in some core grant lines, as well as mass layoffs of program staff and reviewers.
September 2025 Employment Changes by Sector
| Sector | Change (thousands) |
|---|---|
| Health Care | +43 |
| Food Services & Drinking Places | +37 |
| Social Assistance | +14 |
| Manufacturing | 0 |
| Professional & Business Services | 0 |
| Information | 0 |
| Transportation & Warehousing | -25 |
| Federal Government | -3 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation September 2025
Shutdown shock: 43 days without data, grants, or reviews
Secretary Chavez-DeRemer’s statement emphasizes that the September report shows an economy that was “running strong going into the shutdown.” For 43 days, agencies stopped collecting and publishing key datasets, from household employment surveys to some economic statistics at the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The data disruption extends beyond the delayed September report. The BLS announced it “will not publish an October 2025 Employment Situation news release.” Household survey data for October “were not collected for the October 2025 reference period due to a lapse in appropriations and will not be collected retroactively.” The next employment report, covering November, won’t arrive until December 16.
Panels that review proposals were postponed, new funding opportunities were suspended, and progress payments on existing awards were delayed. At NASA, for example, thousands of federal employees were furloughed and many research activities were paused.
Federal government employment changes, 2025
| Month | Change from January peak | notable Events |
|---|---|---|
| January | 0 (peak) | — |
| February | -10,000 (est.) | Probationary employee terminations begin |
| March | -25,000 (est.) | NIH grant terminations accelerate |
| April | -45,000 (est.) | NSF announces major layoff plans |
| May | -65,000 (est.) | Budget proposals show 40-50% cuts |
| June | -75,000 (est.) | Grant freezes expand |
| July | -85,000 (est.) | Continuing declines |
| August | -94,000 (est.) | Pre-shutdown staffing |
| September | -97,000 | Additional 3,000 job losses |
| October | (no data) | 43-day government shutdown begins |
Note: Monthly breakdowns estimated from available data. September figure from BLS establishment survey.
National labs, university research offices, and contractors that depend heavily on federal science dollars suddenly found their revenue streams frozen, all while being told by political leaders that the broader economy was “firing on all cylinders.”
The economic fallout of cutting science
The administration frames science cuts as fiscal responsibility and argues that diverting money from basic research helps fund priorities like “reindustrialization” and tax relief. Economists warn that the math does not work in the long run.
An analysis by IMPLAN economists modeled the impact of a $5.5 billion cut in NIH indirect cost payments. They estimate it would shrink GDP by about $6.1 billion and affect more than 46,000 jobs nationwide, once supply chain and household spending effects are included.
University leaders warn that capping indirect cost rates at 15%, another key plank of the administration’s policy, would further hollow out campus research. In a legal complaint challenging the NSF cap, Brown University and partner institutions wrote that such a policy would have “irreparable” effects. “Vital scientific work will come to a halt, training will be stifled, and the pace of scientific discoveries will slow,” their filing states.
At the front lines, some scientists see a generation at risk. “We risk losing an entire generation of young scientists that are really going to be the people driving tomorrow’s discoveries and cures,” said Northwestern University stem cell biologist Carole LaBonne in an interview published in Nature about NIH grant terminations and growing rejection rates.
