The question is no longer if China will surpass U.S. R&D spending, but what happens next. R&D World’s 2025 Global Funding Forecast projects China reaching effective parity with the U.S. this year ($1.05T versus $1.07T in PPP terms), with a full crossover expected by 2026.
While the specifics of the crossover vary based on your model, parity is essentially here. And now, China has a real stake at achieving global R&D leadership, representing the sharpest reversal of innovation leadership in the modern era. For historical context, the U.S. has been the world’s R&D heavyweight since the 1950s, peaking at about 69% of global R&D in 1960. Its share fell to roughly 31% by 2020 as others, led by Asia, scaled up.
While the U.S. faces proposed 57% cuts to NSF funding and terminated research grants worth $1 billion, China is channeling $55 billion into its “Science and Technology Innovation 2030” program. The implications go beyond headline totals: they touch talent flows, research infrastructure, and the direction of strategic technologies.
Key findings of the report include:
- Asia is projected to capture 42% of global R&D spend in 2025, up from 34% in 2020.
- Samsung Electronics outpacing Qualcomm and Intel combined in USPTO patents.
- A looming 67,000-engineer shortage in U.S. semiconductors by 2030.
- China produces nearly double the STEM PhDs of the United States.
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