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A look at global R&D projections
For 2024, R&D World’s editors forecast that $2.53 trillion will be invested globally in R&D, which represents an 8.3% increase over the 2022 forecast. The report notes: “In general, countries are increasing their R&D intensity over time, which means that R&D is increasing both through growing GDP and the growing share of GDP.”
The interactive map below illustrates the projected R&D investment intensity across countries for 2024:
How we forecast R&D investment
The forecasting methodology in the 2024 Global Funding Forecast is simple. It applies the historical trend in a country’s R&D intensity (R&D as percent of GDP) to its forecasted GDP. While this may seem too simple, it matches how most companies set their R&D budgets: applying last year’s R&D intensity to next year’s revenue forecast. Governments aren’t much different, as the ability to grow spending is largely based on increasing existing efforts at the GDP growth rate.
Accordingly, the forecasts illustrated in the above map are formed in two steps. In the first step, we create the “R&D Intensity Forecast” for each country by applying an annual growth trend in a country’s R&D intensity to its most recent GDP reported by the World Bank. For the majority of countries, the most recent value is from 2020, but a handful of countries report for 2021, and for other countries, the most recent report is years earlier. In general, countries are increasing their R&D intensity over time, which means that R&D is increasing both through growing GDP and the growing share of GDP.
In the second step, we apply the R&D intensity to the country’s GDP. For 2022, the country’s GDP is the value reported by the World Bank. For 2024, it is the forecasted GDP reported by Trading Economics.
How industry is shaping the future of R&D
Our 2024 Global R&D Funding Forecast reveals, industrial R&D comprises a significant portion of global research and development efforts. The report highlights that “industrial R&D comprises 39% of R&D across all countries, but it tends to be the dominant funder and performer in industrialized countries. In the U.S., for example, industrial R&D exceeds 75% of total R&D.”
The forecast provides a comprehensive view of how different sectors are investing in innovation. From software and business services, which lead in R&D spending, to pharmaceuticals, ICT, and automotive industries, each sector’s R&D trends reflect broader economic and technological shifts. For instance, this year’s report notes that “Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft combined spend more on R&D than all but the top three countries (U.S., China, and Japan).”
To gain a full understanding of the R&D landscape, download the complete 2024 Global R&D Funding Forecast. This comprehensive report offers detailed analyses of R&D trends by country, industry, and company, providing insights for business leaders, policymakers, and researchers alike.
